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疯狂的“苹果”The Apple frenzy

历史资料:日期、报道观点、资质和数据保留原发布语境,不表示当前状态。Historical archive: dates, reported views, qualifications and figures retain their original context and do not represent current status.

原发布日期Originally published · 2011-11-03

在各产业链全球化的今天,苹果可以说乐享“地球村”之便利,对上中游产业链的厂商敲骨吸髓,造就了今日苹果超越埃克森美孚,成为全球最有价值的上市公司,迎来其值得纪念的巅峰时刻。诗云:一将功成万骨枯,君不见富士康的工人的“十三跳”事件、君不见触摸屏环节的己烷慢性中毒事件等,从2009年7月至今,苹果在中国的代工厂已有接近上百人遭遇事故的公开记录。In today's globalized industrial supply chains, Apple enjoys the conveniences of the 'global village' while squeezing upstream and midstream manufacturers to the bone. This has helped it overtake ExxonMobil as the world's most valuable listed company and reach a memorable pinnacle. As the poem says, 'One general's success is built on ten thousand withered bones.' Consider the 'thirteen jumps' involving Foxconn workers, or the chronic hexane poisoning cases in touch-screen production. Since July 2009, publicly reported incidents at Apple's contract factories in China have affected close to a hundred people.

一个圆圆的小苹果能在地球上兴风作浪吗?答案是否定的。但提起美国的苹果公司能否在地球掀起消费狂潮,地球人都明白。它的iPhone把把控手机市场几十年的大佬诺基亚拉下了宝座;它推出的iPad平板电脑不仅扼杀了刚刚兴起的上网本产业,还把传统的笔记本电脑挤到了市场边缘;又传它将要推出苹果电视,各个电视厂商们风声鹤唳,胆战心惊;当诺基亚、三星、戴尔等群起效仿时,它又拿起专利的大棒开始攻击……Can a small, round apple stir up the entire world? No. But ask whether the American company Apple can unleash a global consumer frenzy, and everyone knows the answer. Its iPhone dethroned Nokia, which had dominated the mobile-phone market for decades. Its iPad not only strangled the emerging netbook industry but also pushed conventional laptops toward the margins. Rumors that it would launch an Apple television left television manufacturers deeply alarmed. And when Nokia, Samsung, Dell and others rushed to imitate it, Apple picked up the patent club and began attacking them.

苹果公司在全球市场中就如一头遵守丛林法则的猛狮,它进入那片草原,将给那片草原带来血雨腥风,而紧随其后的就是分食其残羹冷炙的秃鹰、鬣狗与土狼。In the global marketplace, Apple is like a fierce lion obeying the law of the jungle: whichever grassland it enters is swept by bloodshed, followed by vultures, hyenas and jackals feeding on the leftovers.

常言:想要了解狼的本性,就要成为狼群的一员。同样,如果想要分得苹果产业链中一杯羹,就要成为其中的一环。放眼看看始终领引电子消费潮流的苹果公司吧,它牢牢地把控着终端消费者,就直接或间接决定了中上游产业链厂商们的命运,让其俯首称臣,为其马首是瞻。苹果公司供应商广泛分布在中国大陆、捷克、马来西亚、菲律宾、中国台湾、泰国及美国等国家。在苹果这么多的供应商,相对于苹果公司拿到的200%的利润时,他们还在为2%-8%的毛利争得破了头,而在苹果产业链外围的厂商还在虎视眈眈,抢占被苹果刷掉的供应商余出的名额和空间。It is often said that to understand a wolf's nature, one must join the pack. Similarly, to obtain a share of Apple's supply chain, a company must become one of its links. Look at Apple, which consistently leads consumer electronics trends: by controlling the end consumer, it directly or indirectly determines the fate of upstream and midstream manufacturers, making them submit and follow its lead. Apple's suppliers are spread across mainland China, the Czech Republic, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, the United States and elsewhere. While Apple takes profits of 200%, its many suppliers fight fiercely over gross margins of 2–8%, and companies outside the chain watch closely for opportunities to take the places vacated by suppliers Apple removes.

苹果“黑洞”Apple's 'black hole'

对处在全球产业链金字塔顶端的苹果公司来说,目前它能调动和掌握的资源就如星际中的黑洞一样,产生了巨大的引力,把全球的资源都吸附到自己的身上。目前,苹果产品的供应链遍及全球,不仅直接供应商的数量众多,间接供应商更是无算。At the top of the global industrial pyramid, Apple commands resources like a black hole in space, generating enormous gravitational pull and drawing global resources toward itself. Its product supply chain now spans the world, with not only a large number of direct suppliers but countless indirect suppliers as well.

据全球著名评论信息和分析公司HIS的数据则显示,就以苹果单一产品iPad为例,在其带动下,2011年和2012年全球平板电脑出货量将分别剧增267.3%和75.8%,直接导致聚合物和导电聚合物的需求每年将增长约26%,据加拿大电子产业研究中心预测,聚合物预计将从2010年的19亿美元增加到2015年的近60亿美元。Data from the global commentary and analysis firm identified as HIS illustrate this with the iPad alone. Driven by the product, global tablet shipments were expected to soar by 267.3% in 2011 and 75.8% in 2012, directly causing demand for polymers and conductive polymers to rise by approximately 26% a year. According to a Canadian electronics industry research center, the polymer market was expected to grow from US$1.9 billion in 2010 to nearly US$6 billion in 2015.

再以聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯(PMMA)和聚碳酸酯(PC)这两种电子产品中最常见的外壳材料为例,通常,一台iPhone手机每135克质量中含有约3.1克的塑料,占整个机身重量的3%,而一台iPad电脑中塑料含量大约是7%,苹果电子产品销售的火爆已催生巨大的需求。此外,在电池、屏幕和电路中也会使用如聚丙烯腈等工程塑料,这些部件中塑料的含量通常会接近40%。Take polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) and polycarbonate (PC), two of the most common housing materials in electronics. An iPhone weighing 135 grams typically contains about 3.1 grams of plastic, stated as 3% of the handset's weight, while plastic accounts for approximately 7% of an iPad. The surge in Apple product sales has created enormous demand. Engineering plastics such as polyacrylonitrile are also used in batteries, screens and circuits, where plastic content often approaches 40%.

然而,苹果“黑洞”对同类行业造成了巨大的伤害,诺基亚不是苹果唯一的受害者!Yet Apple's 'black hole' has caused enormous harm to related industries. Nokia is not its only victim.

除了诺基亚从通讯手机霸主,变成只差一级债信就被评为垃圾的公司外,当年手持式装置,掌上型电脑品牌Palm,几乎快要破产,幸亏惠普(HP)把它买下,才有救;而台湾的宏碁,原本的通路获利模式完全失灵,今年达不到财测目标外,还让执行长、全球总裁兰奇(GianfrancoLanci)下台走人。其他的受害者还很多:英特尔、微软、美光、LG、黑莓机制造商RIM与游戏厂商任天堂,连亚马逊(Amazon)网路书店也在其中。因为iPad开卖65天内,电子书下载次数就达500万次,抢下约22%的电子书市场,即便亚马逊的Kindle早iPad三年推出,也只能坐看市场流失。Beyond Nokia's fall from mobile-phone leader to a company just one credit-rating step above junk, the handheld and personal digital assistant brand Palm came close to bankruptcy and was rescued only by Hewlett-Packard's acquisition. Taiwan's Acer saw its channel-based profit model cease to work; besides missing its financial targets this year, it lost chief executive and global president Gianfranco Lanci. There are many other casualties: Intel, Microsoft, Micron, LG, BlackBerry maker RIM, game company Nintendo, and even online bookseller Amazon. Within 65 days of the iPad's launch, e-book downloads reached five million, capturing about 22% of the e-book market. Although Amazon's Kindle had launched three years earlier, it could only watch its market share slip away.

苹果“黑洞”的受害者范围甚至超乎想像。最先的苹果受害者便是音乐产业。原因无他,苹果的iTunes音乐销量,超越Wal-Mart及BestBuy,成为全美最大唱片零售商,这让数家连锁唱片零售店关门大吉。今年6月,苹果还宣布要推出云端音乐服务,只要有随身装置,就可以随时上网听音乐,且不用下载。这么一来,唱片与随身听、音响业者,就只有坐等末日了。而卖键盘的厂商忽然没生意做,因为iPhone都是用一指触控搞定。可怕的苹果“黑洞”,从芬兰的顶尖科技大厂,到美国乡间小镇的小唱片行,无人能幸免其强大的引力和破坏了。(摘自《中华液晶网》)The reach of Apple's 'black hole' extends even further than one might imagine. The music industry was among the earliest affected. Apple's iTunes music sales overtook Walmart and Best Buy, making it the largest music retailer in the United States and driving several record-store chains out of business. In June this year, Apple also announced a cloud music service that would allow users to listen online at any time through a portable device, without downloading. Record sellers, portable music-player makers and audio equipment companies were left waiting for their end. Keyboard makers suddenly found themselves without business because the iPhone handled everything with a finger's touch. From Finland's leading technology companies to small record shops in rural American towns, none could escape the powerful pull and destructive force of Apple's alarming 'black hole.' (Excerpted from China LCD Network.)

原发布日期:Originally published: 2011-11-03